2022 will be a defining year for local politics in Newham as the Olympic Park area comes back under local control and with council elections in May. In the run-up to the vote Newham Voices will give opportunities for all the major political groups in the Borough to have their say. As the year ends, John Oxley, Chair of West Ham Conservative Association, kicks off the debate and says that change is on the way for Newham.

In May 2022 Newham will return to the polls for the local government and mayoral elections. At first glance, it seems like a foregone conclusion. The Labour Party has dominated Newham for decades and the Borough is one of its strongest areas in the country.

No non-Labour councillors have been elected since 2006, when Respect and the Christian People’s Alliance both won seats, while the other major parties have not held a seat on the council since 1998.

Yet the last few years have shown that strongholds like this are not as strong as they once were. 2022 may well be the year where political change returns to Newham. Of course, Newham itself is undergoing rapid change – most obvious in the wards to the west of the borough, around Stratford and Canning Town, where new-build flats have swelled the population and brought in affluent City workers.

While some would expect these to lean towards Conservative, there is some evidence that the Party now struggles with such workers, instead opening the door to the other national parties. The Lib Dems performed well in Stratford in 2018 and have an opportunity to make an impact in the new ward centred on the Olympic Park.

Equally, the Green Party has established itself in Forest Gate and Maryland where, again, new and more compact wards make things more competitive. Like elsewhere in the country, they are aided here by opposition to Brexit, as the north and west of Newham voted heavily Remain in the referendum.

In the south and east of the borough, it is a different story. Areas such as Custom House and Royal Docks leant towards Leave with a mix of white working class votes and an under-reported support for Brexit seen in South Asian communities.

These wards are also vulnerable for Labour for other reasons – violent crime, and the failure to deliver CrossRail, two things which undermined Sadiq Khan’s election showing, are acute here. Indeed, Custom House was the only ward in East London where Conservative Shaun Bailey beat Labour on first preferences.

Newham is unlikely to see the dramatic changes of the Red Wall in the North of England, but as the Borough changes, and politics too, Labour cannot take their dominance for granted. Shifting populations, changing political trends and the impact of the new council ward boundaries could produce an upset or two come May.

John Oxley is Chair of West Ham Conservative Association

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